For the first time in history, Marine Le Pen’s far right positions itself as the main political force in France, after winning the first round of the legislative elections, and manages to overtake the centrist and European Emmanuel Macron, with whom it has lost two presidential elections. He has never been so close to power. According to provisional figures, National groupingLe Pen’s party got it 33.5% of the votes, almost doubling the figure obtained in the 2022 legislative elections. The left bloc, the second political force that unites socialists, environmentalists, communists and La Francia Insumisa, reaches 28.5%. It resists well, despite internal divisions. Macron’s presidential bloc is weakened with 22.1%. In just two years it went from the first political force to the third.
The polls prove Le Pen right, who today does not have the much desired absolute majority, confirm the mobilization of the left and punish Macron. They leave the country and Europe with bated breath facing the last round of elections, next Sunday, which could change the current political landscape: if the far-right party were to reach an absolute majority (it needs 289 seats) it could form a government. It would be the first time, after years of attempts. France, a pillar of the Union, would thus follow in the footsteps of countries like Italy, where parties with a xenophobic past have managed to normalize their discourse and penetrate the electorate.
At the moment, Le Pen does not have enough support (she is just a handful of seats away) and the various blocs are mobilizing to prevent her. Emmanuel Macron, in a statement released by Elsée, called for a «broad democratic and republican union in view of the second round to face RN». Gabriel Attal, her prime minister, said: «Not a vote for RN».
The turnout was historic, close to 70%, a figure not seen since the 1980s. «Democracy has spoken» and the polls «have practically erased the Macronist bloc». Le Pen said: who appeared at Hnin Beaumont, in the Pas de Calais, just 10 minutes after the results were announced. Jordan Bardella, the RN’s candidate for prime minister, warned that next week’s vote would be «one of the most decisive in the history of the Fifth Republic».
The future of France will be decided on Sunday, in the second round. The candidates who have achieved the 12.5% of registered voter support. Normally there are two, but when participation is high, as it happens, three pass because it is easier to reach that 12.5%. This disperses the vote, which in this case benefits RN. This is why some, like the left, have already launched the slogan: withdraw their candidates who are in third position to concentrate support against the far right.
Jean Luc Mlenchon, leader of Rebel France, did so: «The slogan is clear: no more seats for the National Rally.» Socialist Raphael Glucksmann also called for «voting for the candidate who will allow us to confront the far right.» «Let’s not make the wrong enemy,» he said.
The polls show it a country divided into three blocks and without a very clear majority. In the 2022 legislative elections, the presidential coalition obtained 25.7% support in the first vote; the left-wing one Mlenchonthen grouped under the acronym Nupes, held 25.66%. Le Pen came in third, with 18.68% of the vote. Today we double that figure.
Macron caused a cataclysm by dissolving the Assembly two weeks ago, following the triumph of the far right in the European elections on 9 June. He said he was looking «a national clarification». What the polls say is this: the political scheme that existed has been blown up, the Republican shield that prevented the far right from winning has been broken and the logic that worked until now no longer works. Marine Le Pen is no longer so scary and now the most frightening is the leader of the left Jean-Luc Mlenchon. Le Pen, whose father was convicted of anti-Semitism and hate crimes, in her short speech tonight called Mlenchon an anti-Semite and warned of the danger of the left winning next Sunday.
Macron met the Prime Minister at Elseo this afternoon, Gabriele Attaland the leaders of the allied parties. The polls were more unfavorable to him, giving him just 20% support. The Republicans, a traditional right-wing party, obtained 10% of the vote at the polls. Its president, Eric Ciotti, has decided to join Le Pen in this battle, a red line for the party. The estimates for RN take into account Ciotti and his allies, but not the rest.
In this election, 577 deputiesone per electoral district. 4009 candidates had applied. The far-right party has never been so present in Parliament and so close to power. The left, despite the internal tensionsabove all thanks to the omnipresence of the controversial Mlenchon, she managed to regain her composure.
In France, the spectre of coexistence or blockade looms larger than ever. In the first case: the possibility that Macron, a centrist and pro-European, presides over the country and Le Pen, a Eurosceptic, governs it. For this to happen, he would need to have an absolute majority. Macron will have to train a new government that reflects the new balance of parliamentary forces.
There might be a paralysis without any blockade he apparently obtains a clear majority. A government in these circumstances is tied hand and foot. Now it’s Macron’s turn. The political blocs are so opposed that it is difficult to imagine alliances or possible pacts. Jordan Bardellathe prime ministerial candidate of Le Pen’s party and one of the key figures of this campaign, has said that he will only govern if he obtains an absolute majority, because he knows that otherwise he will not be able to implement his program.
It was his victory in the European elections that advanced Macron to the legislative elections. At the elections it was evidentRise of the far right across Europe and France follows in its wake. The question next Sunday is whether the country will be able to resurrect that anti-Le Pen shield that has worked until now, but which today seems more weakened than ever.
